"China Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" now available at Fast Market Research
* Beijing will continue to implement positive structural reform measures such as deposit rate liberalisation and local government fiscal reforms. That said, we believe that the People's Bank of China will also continue to ease policy in order to support economic growth, and that high debt levels are therefore unlikely to be addressed in the near-term.
* Xi Jinping has largely consolidated his leadership position, and we believe that he is firmly in control of the Communist Party. This means that policy-making will remain highly centralised and generally cohesive over the medium term. While there remain divides on how to manage the economy, we continue to believe that the government will opt for the middle road of structural reforms with moderate monetary and some fiscal stimulus.
Full Report Details at
Major Forecast Changes
* Following the PBoC's surprise interest rate cut to 5.60% in November 2014, we believe that the central bank has tipped a significant shift in its monetary policy agenda. Past precedent suggests that more cuts will follow, and we have downgraded our end-2015 interest rate forecast to 5.20% as a result.
Key Risks To Outlook
* A key downside risk to our economic outlook remains another collapse in external demand, such as the one that occurred at the height of the global financial crisis. This would seriously undermine growth in trade-dependent industries and hasten a fall in the property market, potentially leading to an outright recession. Given the slowdown in the EU and Japan, a significant drop in performance from the US would make this scenario considerably more likely.
* A hard-landing scenario is also a key risk in China, as falling property prices amid rising domestic debt levels could set the stage for a financial crisis. While we believe that this eventuality will be averted over the next few years owing to the government's considerable resources, such an outcome cannot be entirely ruled out. In this case, real GDP growth would slow...
The China Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in China and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of China's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of China's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise China's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in China, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The China Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections:Economic Outlook,Political Outlook,Business EnvironmentandKey Sector Outlook.
How will the China economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for China through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The China Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for China and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on China, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in China over the next 5-years?
BMI's China country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.