New Study: Ireland Country Risk Report Q3 2015
* Ireland's economy will remain the fastest growing in the eurozone in 2015.
* Domestic demand will become the main growth driver in the country, supported by falling unemployment, rising wages, and the collapse in global oil prices.
* The government has made significant progress narrowing the country's budget deficit, suggesting the worst of austerity measures are now in the past.
* Although the increasingly fragmented Irish political system is clouding the outlook for the 2016 election, recent developments suggest limited chance of a potentially destabilising 'grand coalition' being formed or Sinn Fein playing a role in the next coalition government.
* The ruling Fine Gael/Labour coalition's hopes of remaining in power will rest on its ability to take credit for the country's strong economic recovery.
Full Report Details at
Key Risks To Outlook
* Despite Ireland being relatively well insulated from weak demand in the eurozone, any significant downturn in the region would weigh on Irish growth. We would downgrade our forecasts for exports and real GDP growth if leading and high frequency indicators point towards a significant slowdown in eurozone demand in 2015.
The Ireland Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ireland. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Ireland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of Ireland's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Ireland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ireland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Ireland Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Ireland' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ireland through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Ireland Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Ireland and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Ireland, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Ireland over the next 5-years?
BMI's Ireland country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Ireland Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Ireland.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Ireland's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
* Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Ireland’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.
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