Kuwait Country Risk Report Q3 2015 - New Market Research Report
* We expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2015 and 2016, and retain our forecast for real GDP growth of 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, from an estimated 2.7% in 2014. After a long period of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears to be improving, while the prospects for consumption remain bright. However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political situation as the key downside risk to economic activity.
* Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, including several measures specifically targeting expatriate workers. This runs the risk of increasing uncertainty within the private sector, as well as cementing perceptions of the country as a hub of policy instability.
* We expect tensions to remain between the government and the legislative branch, even with the election of a renewed 'loyalist' parliament.
* We forecast average consumer price inflation for Kuwait of 3.8% and 4.0% for 2015 and 2016 respectively, up from 3.0% in 2014. While we expect a slight fall in Kuwaiti food inflation over the near term on the back of lower global prices, a tight supply picture in the real estate market will fuel housing inflation over the coming quarters, in a trend seen across the GCC.
Full Report Details at
Key Risks To Outlook
* As ever, given the economy's heavy dependence on oil, any further downturn in global energy prices would prove disastrous. That said, Kuwait has the financial arsenal to cope with any short-term volatility in oil prices, and therefore the underlying risks in this regard are minimal.
* Our forecasts assume that the implementation of the government's development plans will be slow owing to the impact of bureaucratic gridlock. However, the state certainly has the firepower to move forward with its capital spending plans if political compromises can be reached. Furthermore, a renewed loyalist parliament, following legislative elections in July 2013, offers the prospect of an acceleration of long-delayed...
The Kuwait Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kuwait. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Kuwait's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
* Forecast the pace and stability of Kuwait's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Kuwait's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Kuwait, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Kuwait Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Kuwait' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Kuwait through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Kuwait Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Kuwait and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Kuwait, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Kuwait over the next 5-years?
BMI's Kuwait country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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