"China Business Forecast Report Q3 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research
* Beijing faces an increasingly challenging landscape in which to implement its planned economic reforms, as a rapidly cooling national property market is an increasingly salient threat to China's slowing economy. The prospect of a vicious cycle of falling property prices and lower economic growth is becoming increasingly likely in our view, and we maintain our core real GDP growth forecast of 7.1% for 2014.
* Beijing's efforts to stimulate China's slowing economy have thus far been extremely targeted in comparison with previous packages, including a relatively small-scale rail package as well as a programme aimed at cutting taxes for small and medium sized businesses. Given government rhetoric regarding the country's slowing growth rate, as well its massive economic imbalances, we do not envisage large-scale fiscal stimulus measures over the coming quarters. Instead, we believe that a continued roll-out of measures targeted at specific industries is the likely path forward.
* The Chinese government's case against former Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang represents a major shift away from past precedent in Chinese politics. Likewise, we note that the targeting of Zhou, along with the purge of former State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) boss Jiang Jiemin, reflect a growing tide against high level State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) bosses, and we see this bolstering the economic reform credentials of president Xi Jinping.
Full Report Details at
Major Forecast Changes
* In line with our long-held expectations, the Chinese yuan's appreciatory trend came to a halt at the beginning of this year. While we believe that the currency's most aggressive depreciation is now behind it, we note that central bank policy as well as market forces suggest that the yuan will likely end 2014 slightly weaker than its current level before stabilising over the long-term. As such, we have downgraded our end-2014 forecast to CNY6.3500 from CNY6.2000...
The China Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in China and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of China's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of China's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise China's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in China, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The China Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the China economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for China through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The China Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for China and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on China, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in China over the next 5-years?
BMI's China country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the China Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing China.
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