"Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report Q3 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research
* The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.
* Despite renewed fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what may turn out to be a potentially prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2014.
Major Forecast Revisions
* We have revised our real GDP growth projections, and now forecast the economy to expand by 1.8% and 2.3% in real terms in 2014 and 2015, respectively, from our previous forecast of 2.5% growth this year and 2.9% the next. We reaffirm our view that elevated political instability and the lack of structural reform to the economy will contribute to below potential growth over the next five years.
Full Report Details at
Key Risks To Outlook
* Given Lebanon's reliance on foreign capital to finance domestic demand (as evidenced through its large current account shortfall), a marked deterioration in regional or global capital markets over the coming quarters could slow financial inflows, which would negatively impact growth.
* As the civil war in Syria shows no signs of abating, tensions between Lebanese political blocs pro and against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad will remain a key source of instability.
The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in the Lebanon and Syria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of The Lebanon and Syria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of The Lebanon and Syria's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise The Lebanon and Syria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Lebanon and Syria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes two major sections: Economic Outlook and Political Outlook.
How will the the Lebanese and Syrian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Lebanon and Syria through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Lebanon and Syria and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Lebanon and Syria, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in The Lebanon and Syria over the next 5-years?
BMI's The Lebanon and Syria country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the the Lebanese and Syrian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Lebanon and Syria.
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