Qatar Business Forecast Report Q3 2014 - New Study Released
* Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country's native population and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world. A small population - and one without much inclination to protest against the government - will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.
* Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani became the new ruler of Qatar in June 2013, in a peaceful handover from his father, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa. The 34-year old Emir's first public address and the composition of his new cabinet suggest that policy continuity will be the order of the day.
* Strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon economy, stemming from extensive construction activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector, will drive economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real GDP of 5.7% this year and 6.1% in 2015, from 6.5% in 2013.
Full Report Details at
Key Risks To Outlook
* Given the economy's heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a pronounced global economic downturn - if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas - could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatar's external account position, budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country's US$115bn sovereign wealth fund - as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets - provides the economy with significant bulwarks against these risks.
* The Qatari government's increasingly assertive foreign policy raises some risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. In particular, we highlight the potential for the country's foreign policy to provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the government could become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East. The withdrawal of three GCC countries' ambassadors from...
The Qatar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Qatar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Qatar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of Qatar's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Qatar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Qatar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Qatar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Qatar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Qatar through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Qatar Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Qatar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Qatar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Qatar over the next 5-years?
BMI's Qatar country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Qatar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Qatar.
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