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Nifty Futures Trading Strategy for Aug-Sep 2015

The Indian stock market and Nifty Index are likely to face a wide range of events over next 8 weeks, and the Nifty is likely to experience higher than usual volatility as Nifty futures trading positions get changed abruptly, on both long and short side, based on news flow from within India and abroad. Adverse news flow can come from China, Europe and USA. We believe the probability of interest rate hike in the USA in Sep 2015 is very less because of the deflationary forces worldwide, and lack of any major source of growth.

In addition to global slowdown worries, the political logjam in India that is causing no progress on various bills is a big letdown for the Indian markets, and Nifty has not got much benefit from the current earning season. Nifty trailing P/E remains at high levels near 23.5, which is not sustainable in the absence of regular positive news. And there has been hardly any positive news for the Indian economy for the last 2-3 months, except for a fairly good monsoon 2015 that is nearing its completion.

Nifty is likely to trade in a 700 point range over the next 6-8 weeks because of the above factors. The range could be between 8700 and 8000. The Nifty Futures Trading strategy during this period (Aug-Sep 2015) would be to create long positions between 8100-8300 levels, and to exit the long positions between 8600-8700 levels. One can also create short positions whenever Nifty breaks below 8500, or buy Nifty 8500 Put Options. We expect to see many good Nifty trading opportunities in the coming days and weeks.

Nifty Options data shows that 8200 can act as a good support for the current August 2015 series. Buying Nifty Call Options is not advisable as Nifty correction is now over yet. Selling Nifty Put options is also not advisable in the near term. Investors can buy August Nifty 8500 Put Options, to protect their stock portfolios. Please Note: Nifty Futures trading on long side must be done after buying Nifty 8000 Put options for downside protection.

For more details on Nifty Futures trading, please visit: www.niftytrading.net

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New York 10017


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