Recent Study: South Africa Metals Report Q4 2014
South Africa's metals industry will continue to see subdued production activity due to prices remaining below multi-year highs, elevated energy costs , and labour unrest . Metals consumption growth will rise faster than production growth , due to solid demand growth from the auto, construction, and infrastructure sector s .
Our metals consumption outlook remains constructive on the back of our expectations for broader economic growth in South Africa in the coming years. We see autos production growth, which we currently forecast at 2.9% on average per annum in 2014-2018, as a key driver of metals consumption. Our forecast for the construction and infrastructure industries to see average annual growth of 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively, over the same period should also support the domestic metals industry. Due to production weakness across the metals landscape, we expect increased imports in the coming quarters, as investment in South African production facilities will be held back by the glut of metals, particularly steel, on the world market.
Full Report Details at
Our expectation for continued troubles in metals production is predicated on consistent labour unrest in the mining sector and long-term structural problems such as high electricity prices. Furthermore, a national carbon tax, which was recently delayed but now set to go into effect in 2016, will also be detrimental to investment in productive capacity. Although concessions will potentially be implemented for energy-intensive industries such as steel production, the tax will further weigh on a deteriorating environment for metals production in South Africa.
The South Africa Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in South Africa.
BMI's South Africa Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in South Africa.
* Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South Africa metals market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
* Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
Steel: Little Incentive To Invest
Production Outlook Muted
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Plants
Consumption Fundamentals Appear Stronger
Construction Looking More Positive, Though Problems Remain
Table: South Africa - Steel Consumption & Production
Table: South Africa - Steel Production & Trade Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Aluminium: Diminishing As An Export Hub
Consumption Supported By Autos And Construction
Production Hampered By Power Woes
Upstream Supplies May Pose Challenge
Exports Likely To Decline
Table: South Africa - Primary Aluminium Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Nickel: Declining Platinum Output To Constrain Nickel
Automotive Sector Remains Primary Demand Driver
Production Fundamentals Lag Demand
Table: South Africa - Refined Nickel Production, Consumption & Balance
Carbon Tax Delayed, Though Implementation Likely
Labour Market To Remain Volatile
Table: South Africa - Political Overview
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Table: South Africa - Major Steel Production Facilities
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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