Just Published: "Brazil Shipping Report Q4 2014"
We believe that Brazil's economic recovery will falter this year, and are revising down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.0%, below our 2013 estimate of 2.3% growth. Indeed, further monetary tightening, significant exchange rate weakness and ongoing project delays in the infrastructure sector will negatively impact both the private consumption and fixed investment components, weighing on headline growth.
Signs of weakening high frequency data in late 2013 and early 2014, the prospect of more significant monetary tightening this year, as well as ongoing project delays in the infrastructure sector, underpin our decision to downgrade our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Brazil from 2.4% to 2.0%. Indeed, after ticking up throughout most of Q213 and Q313, the country's services and composite purchasing managers' indices began to head lower in Q413, which we expect to weigh on economic activity in the first several months of 2014. Similarly, we have seen consumer and business confidence data weaken as well, factors that are likely to weigh on industrial production and retail sales going forward.
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That said, Brazil's shipping industry is poised to enjoy an impressive year. The country's largest port in Santos is forecast to see tonnage grow 9.00%, while container throughput will increase by just under 10.00%. The ports of Salvador and Itajaí are both set to record double-digit growth in the tonnage sphere in 2014.
Key Industry Forecasts
* Total tonnage throughput at the Port of Santos to grow 9.00% in 2014 to reach 124.35mn tonnes.
* Container throughput at Santos to grow 9.50% to reach 3.78mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2014.
* Total tonnage throughput at the Port of Itajaí to increase 13.00% in 2014 to reach 14.25mn tonnes.
* Container throughput at the port of Itajaí to grow 9.00% to reach 1.20mn TEUs in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
Barge Development Will Eventually Ease Soy Trade
BMI believes the development of a barge...
The Brazil Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.
BMI's Brazil Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Brazil.
* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian shipping market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
* Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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