"Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014" Published
* Political instability will remain elevated as the four-party government coalition attempts to push through harsh austerity measures that will likely prompt parliamentary tensions and social unrest.
* The short-term economic outlook has improved in light of accelerating regional economic activity and a slight rebound in domestic demand.
* The corporate sector remains overleveraged and will remain a major risk to the banking sector - unless ultimately some form of restructuring takes place, whether on the loans itself to reduce debt servicing costs, or through cost cutting (shedding jobs/trimming investment).
Full Report Details at
Major Forecast Changes
* We have adjusted our growth forecasts to take into account recent data and now expect that Slovenia will exit recession in 2014, growing by 0.5% against our previous forecast for a 0.5% contraction.
* We have adjusted our current account forecasts, and now expect a surplus of 7.0% in 2014, from a previous forecast of 3.7%.
Risks To Outlook
* Politics remains a key risk to the national reform programme, with the details of how to slash the budget deficit during a downturn likely to highlight differences between coalition partners. Any sign that the reform programme is at risk of delay or suspension will have an immediate and punishing impact on market sentiment towards Slovenia, pushing the country closer to a bailout.
* A big risk to the Slovenian economy lies abroad. A major deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, or even just a greater-than-expected slowdown in the core eurozone nations, would have severe knock-on effects on the Slovenian economy, not only via depressed trade and investment flows, but also via credit channels and broader economic sentiment.
The Slovenia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Slovenia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Slovenia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
* Forecast the pace and stability of Slovenia's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Slovenia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Slovenia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Slovenia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Slovenia economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Slovenia through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Slovenia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Slovenia and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Slovenia, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Slovenia over the next 5-years?
BMI's Slovenia country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Slovenia Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Slovenia.
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